Campaigning in Troubled Waters
Latvia’s pre-election scene analysis by Pauls Raudseps, weekly magazine Ir, podcasts Šķiltava, Ārskats
When Evika Siliņa (Jaunā Vienotība) stepped down as prime minister on May 14, all previous assumptions and forecasts about the 15th Saeima elections, which will take place on 3 October, had to be revised.
Until then, an election result had been gradually taking shape in which streams of dissatisfaction flowing from various sources could converge in a result where parties with more or less pronounced pro-Russian leanings would have a decisive influence in the Saeima or parliament. Therefore, it had long been clear that the competing parties’ attitude towards Latvia’s security and their support for Ukraine would be among the most important factors for voters to consider when deciding which list to vote for. (This is such an important issue that we have a separate section at the end of the article where you can read what each party’s program says regarding its commitment to supporting Ukraine. However, it should be borne in mind that Latvia’s security could also be affected by the readiness of parties supporting Ukraine to form a government coalition with political forces that look more towards Russia.)
Siliņa’s government had several concrete achievements. It managed to increase defence spending to almost 5% of gross domestic product while at the same time reducing income taxes for the majority of the population, as well as significantly lowering prescription drug prices. Yet despite these successes, Siliņa’s government was unpopular. The prime minister herself failed to establish a positive emotional connection with voters, a declining birth rate and relatively slow economic growth created an atmosphere of stagnation, while public quarrels with her coalition partners, the Progresīvie and the Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (ZZS), fostered the impression that politicians only argue and do nothing. One of Siliņa’s main achievements — overcoming the resistance of defenders of “traditional values” and securing the ratification of the Istanbul Convention on violence against women — was transformed into a vivid example of coalition infighting when ZZS suddenly reversed itself at the end of last year and, together with the parties in opposition, voted to withdraw from the convention. This triggered the largest protests in Latvia in the past 20 years. After the intervention of President Rinkēvičs the final decision on the fate of the convention was left in the hands of the next Saeima.
The uncertain future of the Istanbul Convention makes the parties’ positions on this question a litmus test of their attitude towards the second major issue in these elections: liberal, European values. Latvia’s domestic politics over the next four years will largely be determined by the proportion of seats in the Saeima held by parties whose strategy and goals resemble Viktor Orbán’s policies in Hungary, which were aggressively opposed to immigrants, the rights of LGBT+ people and women, and worked to impose the government’s ideology on public media, non-governmental organizations, courts and other independent institutions.
On May 28 one of the most vocal opposition politicians, Andris Kulbergs, became prime minister, and suddenly it was no longer possible to paint the election as a struggle against the “Jaunā Vienotība–Progresīvie regime”. Kulbergs, one of JV’s sharpest critics, had unexpectedly become the head of a new government. The coalition of parties he represents — Apvienotais saraksts — together with another opposition party — Nacionālā apvienība — replaced the Progresīvie in the cabinet, and the influence of Jaunā Vienotība was greatly reduced.
However, only a relatively small number of political forces will be able to make use of this unexpected turn of events. . 2022. Nineteen lists took part in the 2022 elections, but this year only 14 are competing for seats in the Saeima, and only seven of them have managed to run a slate with the maximum number of candidates allowed — 125. A party needs to receive at least 5% of the vote to get seats in the Saeima, but in an SKDS poll published at the end of August, only six parties registered support larger than 3%.
What follows is an examination in greater detail of what these six parties have to offer, listing them in the order of the ballot numbers drawn for their lists. After that I’ll briefly describe the remaining lists, arranged according to their popularity in the poll conducted at the end of August. Each list is also identified by its ballot number.
Suverēnā vara/Apvienība Jaunlatvieši (1)
A list that has brought together many of the most active former members of the Latvijas Krievu savienība and Saskaņas centrs with some of the people most aggressively spreading the idea that “everything is bad”. SV/AJ candidates advocate reducing support for Kyiv and are unable to unequivocally affirm that Crimea belongs to Ukraine. Jūlija Stepaņenko, the face and main leader of the list, has long been a militant representative of “traditional values”. She opposes the Istanbul Convention, LGBT+ rights and the inclusion of information about safe sexual relationships in school curricula. Another prominent SV/AJ leader, Rūdolfs Brēmanis, is on trial for embezzling more than €100,000 while working in the diplomatic service. Brēmanis and Stepaņenko are currently members of the Riga City Council and stand out with their aggressive behavior, which they film and use to create posts on social media.
The tactic is apparently working, as support for the list has more than doubled over the course of the past year. In the latest polls SV/AJ is the second most popular list and has become the clear leader among parties seeking to represent Russian-speaking voters.
All the leading parties say that they would not be prepared to form a coalition with SV/AJ.
Nacionālā apvienība Visu Latvijai! – Tēvzemei un Brīvībai/LNNK (5)
These will be the first elections in 16 years in which the Nacionālā apvienība list will not include the polite and measured Raivis Dzintars. He is not running in these elections, and we can already see how the party’s profile is changing. NA has chosen opposition to immigrants as its main campaign theme, and although the party’s candidate for prime minister is Ilze Indriksone, who recently became education minister, NA’s image is being shaped by the new interior minister Jānis Dombrava. He has launched an aggressive campaign against the small number of immigrants from India and Pakistan. He also wrote an arrogant letter to Spain about immigration policy that was not coordinated with his government colleagues. This earned him a public reprimand from the president and prime minister, because Spanish soldiers play an important role in the NATO forces stationed in Latvia. The NA had received criticism even from its own supporters for its November vote against the Istanbul Convention and is now evasive on this issue. The NA also avoids answering whether it would be prepared to join a coalition with Šlesers’ LPV.
Apvienotais saraksts – Latvijas Zaļā partija, Latvijas Reģionu Apvienība, Liepājas partija (7)
Personalities are very important in elections, but there are not many cases where a party makes one specific person the cornerstone of its politics. Apvienotais saraksts had done exactly that and written the following into its program: “A political crisis threatened Latvia’s security. Then came the solution — Andris Kulbergs.”
Kulbergs’ rise has been meteoric. He entered politics only four years ago. Before running in the 2022 elections he had headed several companies in the automotive industry and was chairman of the board of the Auto Association.
Since assuming office a few months ago Kulbergs has posted actively and sometimes aggressively on social media, where he talks almost every day about what he has done, expresses his attitude towards current events, and shapes his image as that of a decisive leader. This is a huge contrast in style compared with his predecessors, and many people like it. Since the change of government AS’s ratings have jumped and the party is now leading the polls. President Rinkēvičs has also shown a supportive attitude towards the new prime minister. In the long term, however, the tactic of “speak first, think later” can be risky, and Kulbergs has already had to defend his statements several times in recent months. At times it is also unclear to what extent what he says reflects the views of his political allies. Kulbergs is not a member of any of the parties that make up AS. It is questionable whether all AS members agree, for example, with his statement since becoming prime minister that Latvia should not withdraw from the Istanbul Convention.
Kulbergs has also opposed giving state support to non-governmental organizations whose policies he disagrees with and attacked on social media a public television journalist whose report on AS’s election campaign he disliked. He advocates granting “golden visas” to foreigners who purchase real estate in Latvia. On this issue he agrees with Ainārs Šlesers, and up to now Kulbergs has not said unequivocally that he would he would refuse to include Šlesers LPV in government after the elections.
Latvija pirmajā vietā (8)
As the name Latvia First suggests, Ainārs Šlesers created his sixth political party as a blatant attempt to follow the latest trends in political fashion and in the hope of presenting himself as Latvia’s Trump. Yet Šlesers’ politics have in fact remained virtually unchanged for almost 30 years. He promises voters a program for economic development in which Eastern money plays an important role, deliberately appeals to Russian-speaking voters by opposing additional restrictions on the use of the Russian language, and at every opportunity talks about “Christian values”, which now also include opposition to the Istanbul Convention. He strongly dislikes reminders of the “Rīdzene conversations”, secretly recorded 16 years ago by Latvia’s anti-corruption investigators, which revealed Šlesers’ role in efforts to create a Russian-style “power vertical” in Latvia. At the head of the LPV Latgale list is the leader of its allied party Kopā Latvijai, Aleksandrs Bartaševičs, who was denied security clearance by the State security service, and whose party’s board member Iļja Podkolzins was convicted in July of spying for Russia.
Jaunā Vienotība (9)
Politicians from Jaunā Vienotība have occupied the prime minister’s seat for 14 of the past 17 years. It is human nature to always look for something new, and such a long time at the top of the pyramid of power naturally makes the party a target for every complaint and expression of dissatisfaction about life and the state of the country. JV was also left confused and without any obvious leaders after Evika Siliņa brought down her own government with an awkward attempt to replace the defence minister. The party’s candidate for prime minister is former finance minister Arvils Ašeradens, who himself admits that he agreed to take on the role only after the party’s most popular politician — Foreign Minister Baiba Braže — declined.
This has led to a situation in which Jaunā Vienotība, which won a convincing victory in the elections four years ago, is currently polling slightly below the 5% threshold for getting into parliament.
However, if Jaunā Vienotības does not get into the Saeima, it could create a situation unprecedented since the restoration of independence, in which there is no clearly Western-oriented centre-right party in parliament. Until now, other parties often felt free to try various populistic stunts because they quietly relied on the “adults in the room” — Jaunā Vienotība, which took responsibility for leading the government during both the global financial crisis and the Covid pandemic — to keep the ship of state on a steady course. It is difficult to predict what will happen if there is no one left to play this role.
If Jaunā Vienotība does turn out to be among the parties forming the next government, it has announced that it would not be prepared to join a coalition with Šlesers’ LPV.
Progresīvie (14)
The party represents a new trend in Latvian politics — a centre-left force whose left-wing orientation is not a cover for Soviet nostalgia. The core of the Progresīvie electorate consists of young urban residents whose views align with those of their peers in Western Europe and America — socially liberal, but economically opposed to neoliberalism, which had a decisive influence in the world after the fall of the Berlin Wall. The Progresīvie also strongly support green policies and therefore often come into conflict with the forestry and agricultural sectors. Since the 2021 local elections, the Progresīvie have become a significant force and are currently third in the polls, despite the fact that during her time in government Siliņa dismissed both the party’s first transport minister and its defence minister because their work didn’t demonstrate the necessary results.
Progresīvie actively defend the Istanbul Convention and have announced that they would not be prepared to join a coalition with Šlesers’ LPV.
The Rest
Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība (4) is among the longest-lived parties in Latvian politics, but in these elections there is a real possibility that the party will fail to get into parliament. The former mayor of Ventspils Aivars Lembergs is subject to US sanctions and is no longer the ZZS candidate for prime minister, and his place can’t be filled either by his wife Kristīne, who is in the second spot on the Kurzeme ballot, or by the minister of economics Viktors Valainis, who doesn’t have Lemberg’s appeal to many of the party’s erstwhile voters. Flip-flopping on the Istanbul Convention has brought no political benefits. ZZS does not rule out the possibility of cooperating with LPV.
The explicitly Russian-speaking party Stabilitātei! (13) has proved to be just as stable and durable as any post on TikTok. Effective use of this platform brought it 11 parliamentary seats in the last Saeima elections, but since then the party’s parliamentary faction has disintegrated and party leader Aleksejs Rosļikovs fled to Belarus to avoid appearing in court to answer criminal charges for incitement to national hatred.
Latvijas attīstībai (11) is looking for a way back into the Saeima. The party can boast of passing the complicated but necessary 2021 municipal government reform bill, as well as introducing the long-delayed bottle recycling bill, but in the last Saeima elections it fell just short of the 5% threshold. The results of last year’s local elections were also unimpressive and it failed to get into the Riga City Council. In this year’s elections the list lacks popular leaders and continues to be dogged by suspicions of lobbying for the gambling industry.
The well-known director Alvis Hermanis hoped that angry posts on social media would allow the list he created, Mēs mainām noteikumus (2), to collect enough votes from people opposed to Jaunā Vienotība to get into the Saeima. However, the party program’s only clear proposal is to introduce a new electoral system in Latvia. The list is adorned with a string of candidates ready to jump onto any political bandwagon where they can find a place. Hermanis himself is both running for prime minister and insisting that, if elected, he will not leave his job at the theatre. After Siliņa’s government collapsed the emotions Hermanis was playing have waned, dragging down his chances of getting over the 5% threshold.
In the previous Saeima elections Saskaņas centrs (3) couldn’t stick to a consistent position on Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and failed to get into parliament. Now the party’s long-standing leader Jānis Urbanovičs has decided to once again make a play for the Russian-speaking voters. But he has nothing new to offer, the hedging on Ukraine continues, and it is difficult to imagine that Saskaņas centrs will be able to compete successfully with SV/AJ.
The party Austošā Saule Latvijai (12) was founded by former Nacionālā apvienība secretary-general Raivis Zeltīts as an even more radical alternative to the NA. The party is unlikely to get any seats in the Saeima, but it could take votes away from Zeltīts’ former party.
The political path of anti-vaxxer Aldis Gobzems becomes stranger with every passing year. 2019. In 2019 he was given the opportunity to try to form a government, but after experiencing defeat in the 2022 elections he moved to Spain, changed his name to Arigo Toro, and now leads the Gobzema saraksts (6), which doesn’t include anyone named Gobzems.
Jaunā konservatīvā partija (10) used to present itself as a champion in the fight against corruption, but all of the leaders who brought it success in the 2018 elections are long gone. The only somewhat familiar name on the list is Jānis Citskovskis, former head of the State Chancellery, who is also the only defendant in a criminal case for allegedly squandering state money on the leases of aircraft used for former Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš’s official trips. Citskovskis denies the charges.
All the party lists, candidates and programs can be found on the website of the Central Election Commission at cvk.lv. Voters abroad vote in the Riga electoral district. The article was submitted for publication on August 31 and reflects the political situation at that time.
What do the parties’ programs say about supporting Ukraine?
1. Suverēnā vara/Apvienība Jaunlatvieši: Ukraine is not mentioned, but the program says: “we will prevent Latvia from becoming involved in military conflicts, including their financing.”
2. Mēs mainām noteikumus: “We will especially strengthen bilateral relations with our closest allies: the USA, the Baltics, Finland, Poland, Ukraine, and the United Kingdom.”
3. Saskaņas Centrs:“In foreign policy, we will rely on the UN Charter and Latvia’s sovereignty, condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.”
“We will support proactive diplomacy for a just peace, while preserving Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and security guarntees.”
4. Zaļo un Zemnieku savienība “We will strengthen participation in the EU and NATO, [provide] unwavering support for Ukraine and the involvement of Latvian businesses in its reconstruction.”
5. Nacionālā apvienība “We will support Ukraine militarily, politically and economically until victory; we will advocate for its accession to the EU and NATO.”
6. Gobzema saraksts:“In the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Latvia will not take an active, leading position that unjustifiably increases risks to our own security. Our focus is pragmatic realpolitik, diplomacy and peace.”
7. Apvienotais saraksts: “We will continue our unwavering support for Ukraine.”
8. Latvija pirmajā vietā: “We will support Ukraine’s accession to the EU.”
9. Jaunā Vienotība:“We will continue comprehensive political, military and diplomatic support for Ukraine until a just peace and Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. We will maintain international pressure on Russia, strengthen sanctions and end economic dependence on Russia and Belarus.”
10. Jaunā konservatīvā partija: “We will BUILD A MILITARY-TECHNOLOGICAL ALLIANCE WITH UKRAINE, adopting wartime experience and developing joint defense-industry projects.”
11. Latvijas attīstībai: “We will continue comprehensive political, military and humanitarian support for Ukraine until a just and sustainable peace is achieved. Ukraine’s victory is in the security interests of Latvia and all of Europe.”
12. Austošā saule Latvijai: “We will promote closer cooperation between the Scandinavian and Baltic countries, Poland and Ukraine. We will support Ukraine’s path to NATO.”
13. Stabilitātei!: Ukraine is not mentioned, but the program contains the following points: “restore economic cooperation with Russia and Belarus,” “review Latvia’s participation in economic sanctions,” and “restore state neutrality and renounce participation in military conflicts between other countries.”
14. Progresīvie: “Latvia must be an active NATO eastern-flank state that responds to, anticipates and prevents threats in cooperation with NATO, the EU, NB8+, Poland, the United Kingdom and Ukraine.”
This article was prepared for LNAK with financial support from the Society Integration Fund, using funds from the Latvian state budget. Pauls Raudseps is responsible for the content.